The 'No Silver Bullet' series explores various potential pathways for India’s transition to net-zero emissions, discusses the challenges and constraints, and provides directional insights based on long-term modelling using system dynamics. To complement the findings from cost-optimisation models, simulation modelling based on systems thinking was used to determine the impact of competition for natural (and other) resources and the ensuing non-linear feedback dynamics.
We applied the findings of previous studies and performed a trend analysis covering the past 40 years to inform land-use conversions simulated in our system dynamics model, Sustainable Alternative Futures for India (SAFARI). As the demand for different land parcels increases (cropland to meet food security, forestland to meet Nationally Determined Contribution [NDC] goals, or built-up area to meet housing for all and urbanisation), the SAFARI model simulates land conversions to meet competing demands based on historical trends and feasibility constraints. We also examined different data sources, critical challenges in reconciliation, and other open-ended questions on future land use in India.
The study scenarios have been designed to explore the subtleties of trade-offs among different sectors. We endeavour to continue exploring India’s long-term pathways from a systemic perspective and engage meaningfully with fellow modellers and policymakers.
