The need for climate action is well established, not only to mitigate climate change but also to build resilience and prevent the depletion of resources due to overexploitation. Creating a roadmap towards a sustainable future requires a deep understanding of how each sector is expected to grow, and more importantly, how different sectors would interact with each other to co-evolve dynamically. Several models at the global scale and a few at the Indian scale have been created to facilitate this understanding. The Sustainable Alternative Futures for India (SAFARI) model developed by the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) is one such example. However, to the best of our knowledge, there are no integrated long-term models for the state of Karnataka.
Namma SAFARI is Karnataka’s first integrated system dynamics model that maps how key sectors, such as energy, transport, industry, buildings, agriculture, and land use, interact and evolve up to 2050.
The initial values used in the model were calibrated with appropriate government datasets. Karnataka’s population, one of the main growth drivers in the model, was assumed to increase to a little over 75 million by 2050 (~10% increase from the current value). The other key growth driver is the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP), which was estimated using a shift-share analysis. Karnataka’s GSDP is projected to increase to INR 128 lakh crore by 2050 (2011 constant prices). Development goals such as affordable housing for all, thermal comfort, food security, energy for all, and healthcare and education for all also drive growth in different sectors, as described in detail in the report. Based on these growth drivers, the model estimated the electricity and fuel demands from each sector—buildings, transport, industry, and agriculture—in a bottom-up manner. The power sector is designed to meet all demands using a least-cost algorithm. Greenhouse gas emissions were then calculated based on the consumption of fuels and electricity generation mix. The land-use dynamics were also modelled to understand the land constraints as well as the agriculture, forestry, and land-use (AFOLU) emissions and sequestration in the state.
While Namma SAFARI is a detailed mathematical model, a more accessible user interface dashboard was developed to help in scenario creation. For each of the sectors modelled, the dashboard shows one page with the results and one for the key levers that can be modified. The dashboard can be used by policymakers and other stakeholders in developing roadmaps for a low-carbon and sustainable Karnataka. For this purpose, as a first step, a sample low-carbon scenario was created
in consultation with several experts. This report describes this representative scenario and its implications.
Based on our analyses of the scenarios, some focus areas that can be included in a low-carbon roadmap for Karnataka include passive cooling strategies and green buildings, green procurement for cement and steel, crop diversification in addition to solar pumps and micro-irrigation, Uunlocking the full potential of GEOA regulations, a freight modal shift policy for the state, and RE + Storage. While the scenarios described here are illustrative, they present tangible pathways to achieve a low-carbon future for Karnataka. The state’s leadership in renewables and industry positions it to pioneer a just transition—balancing equity, affordability, and sustainability. Achieving this vision demands bold policy innovation, stakeholder collaboration, and iterative use of tools such as Namma SAFARI to test real-world trade-offs.
Sarah Khan and Chandrakiran L also co-authored the report.
