System dynamics modelling of India’s net zero transition

While India has made bold strides towards clean energy and climate commitments, the road ahead is not without challenges. As a developing and populous nation, India must decarbonise at a pace that surpasses the growth in energy demand and emissions to meet its climate goals – an unprecedented task for any country. In this context, we present the Sustainable Alternative Futures for India (SAFARI), a system dynamics simulation model that helps provide a holistic understanding of the demands arising from meeting specific development goals in India, the biophysical constraints involved, and the cross-sectoral impacts (benefits and trade-offs) of climate action. SAFARI is tailored specifically for India, encompassing all key greenhouse gas emitting sectors of the economy, and is driven by development goals such as food security, housing for all, healthcare, education, etc. while incorporating non-linear feedbacks from resource constraints. It enables what-if scenario analysis through several low-carbon intervention levers. This paper details the SAFARI methodology and demonstrates its functionality through multiple sectoral scenarios and a representative integrated Long-Term Strategy (LTS) for India’s low-carbon future.

Sweta Bhushan , Sarah Khan , Kunal Jagdale , Upasna Ranjan, Chandrakiran L , Poornima Kumar , Kabir Sharma and Mihir Mathur also co-authored the paper.

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