India's Green Energy Transition

By 2030, India aims to source 50% of electric power from non-fossil fuels and reduce carbon emissions by 45% from 2005 levels. To achieve this target, the 2023 National Electricity Plan by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has estimated the need for 486 GW of variable renewables (solar and wind).

On August 25, 2023, Karnataka clocked the highest-ever peak demand for energy at 16,950 MW. This unusual surge (the state normally experiences peak demand in the summer months) was driven by factors such as escalated energy consumption due to the provision of free power up to 200 units/month to domestic consumers, poor rainfall leading to increased energy consumption by farmers, and heightened commercial and industrial activities within the state.

Public health is a fundamental pillar of society, with inextricable links to a country’s economic growth. For a service-, agriculture-, and manufacturing-driven economy like India with a population of over 140 crore, citizen welfare directly influences labour force participation and productivity.

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The Indian automobile industry is currently valued at USD 108 billion. The Government of India has undertaken considerable strides (through purchase subsidies and auto production-linked incentive scheme, among others) to facilitate the green transition of the well-established domestic automotive industry and promote EV uptake. As a result of such initiatives, more than 28 lakh EVs are plying on road as of July 2023.

As the global community once again converges at the Conference of the Parties (COP), the pivotal role of carbon markets in achieving the Paris Agreement's ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius takes center stage.

Decarbonisation of the transportation sector—the world’s second highest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—is critical to mitigate climate change. Most European and North American nations and China have settled on vehicle electrification as the best GHG reduction strategy.

The Government of India, too, has provided subsidies for electric cars (e-cars), but whether their adoption is the best way to decarbonise the transport sector requires further exploration.

The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has recently released guideli­nes on medium- and long-term demand forecasting, aiming to address the non-uniformity in forecasting app­roa­ches used by various states and utilities. While these guidelines offer clarity on major aspects, some issues need to be resolved for effective implementation.

In India, emissions from one truck are equivalent to those from 25 cabs. With the expected increase in economic activity and consumerism, the share of trucks in transportation emissions is bound to increase. Thus, freight decarbonisation is crucial to meet India’s net-zero and energy independence targets.

India's commitment to the EV30@30 initiative that targets at least30% of vehicle sales to be electric by 2030 translates into adding24 million two-wheelers, 2.9 million three-wheelers, and 5.4 million four-wheelers to its EV fleet by 2035. To meet this demand and reduce its reliance on global EV-component markets, India requires around 3,400-4,100 GWh of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) by2035, estimates the International Council on Clean Transportation.