Adaptation and Risk Analysis

Traditional agroforestry systems across South Asia have historically supported millions of smallholding farmers. Since, 2007 agroforestry has received attention in global climate discussions for its carbon sink potential. Agroforestry plays a defining role in offsetting greenhouse gases, providing sustainable livelihoods, localizing Sustainable Development Goals and achieving biodiversity targets. The review explores evidence of agroforestry systems for human well-being along with its climate adaptation and mitigation potential for South Asia.

India has been witnessing variable monsoon for the past few years. The last year was marked by surplus rain in June, deficit rain in July, and surplus rain in August and September, as reported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences. This inconsistency in the monsoon rainfall pattern is an indication that extreme weather events might become the norm, rather than the exception, in the coming years. The Global Climate Risk Index 2020, released recently, puts India seventh in the list of countries worst hit by extreme events.

Climate change increases strain on agriculture systems through changes in the magnitude, distribution, and timing of rainfall; rise in temperature; and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In Karnataka, agriculture is the key contributing sector for the state’s economy. Despite its importance, agriculture in the state is limited by the availability of irrigation (only 31.2%) and uncertainty in rainfall distribution. These factors greatly hamper the agricultural productivity of the state.

Variability in the leaf phenology of tropical trees impacts their growth. How phenology of tree species responds over rainfall gradient is relevant to study in the light of current climatic changes. Airborne visible and infrared imaging spectrometer-next generation (AVIRIS-NG) spectral datasets have been considered for this study as they not only provide wider area of coverage, but also high spatial and spectrally resolved output.

The Union Budget 2021-22 is clearly a plan to bolster the nation's financial stability that has been down in the doldrums due to the pandemic. But, can the recovery plan, announced on the heels of India being ranked seventh on the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, lead to a resilient and regenerative economy? 

The Union Budget 2021–22 is a clear plan to bring the economy back on track. But the current pandemic should have paved the way for a new approach to economic development — one that prioritised environment, ecosystems, and green infrastructure.

Nineteen extreme weather events in 2019 claimed 1,357 lives, with heavy rain and floods accounting for 63% of deaths in India. Between 2013 and 2019, there has been a 69% increase in the number of heatwave days. Many Indian states are increasingly experiencing extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, heat waves, and super cyclones. These are projected to increase even further in the future. These changes in India's climate will be an additional stress to ecosystems, agricultural outputs, and freshwater resources, and could also damage the infrastructure.

The rise in temperature, high rainfall variability, and increased frequency of extreme events in recent decades are all evidence of climate change. In India, these trends are projected to worsen—temperature likely to increase by 4°C, frequent heat waves to persist over longer durations, heavy rainfall events to get more frequent, dry spells to extend, and the sea level to increase by about 3 metres by the end of the century.
 

In India, the implementation of a large number of developmental and infrastructure programmes have often led to environmental degradation. Very often, environmental damage is recognised post-implementation of a programme or a project.

The Government of India has Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and clearance requirements for large projects. Even this is a flawed process since most of the projects are cleared anyway. Of late, there have been efforts to further dilute the EIA.

Changes in the climate system over tens of thousands of years brought about ice ages and interglacial warming periods. Science confirms that climate change, which is a large-scale and long-term change in the earth’s weather patterns, is human-induced and not due to natural causes.

Globally, the past five years have been the hottest on record, extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods, and droughts have gone up five-fold, and economic losses have increased seven-fold over the past 50 years.