Adaptation and Risk Analysis

The deluge of recent calamities including Cyclone Amphan, floods in Assam, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, and the wildfires in California and Oregon bears testimony to the recurrence of climate crises in rapid succession. In fact, the year 2020 has underscored the uncertainty and unpredictability of such catastrophes. The regularity of such incidents calls for the immediate application of resilience thinking.

Reams of newsprint have been spent on the devastating blow to the job market and economy during the current pandemic. Amid this pall of gloom, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) brought comfort to 55 million households by ensuring livelihoods from April to August 2020. Many of those who got jobs under the scheme were the ones who had reverse migrated from cities due to complete shutdown during the pandemic.

In the fight against COVID-19, India announced INR 1.70 lakh crore (0.8 per cent of GDP) stimulus package. The package covers food, cooking gas, and direct cash transfers to low-income households. It includes insurance cover for health workers and wage support to low-wage workers. Later on, in May 2020, the government announced INR 20 lakh crore (10 per cent of GDP) to revitalise the economy. This package is inclusive of the INR 1.7 lakh crore to make India self-reliant.

The temperature in the Indian subcontinent is set to increase 4 degree Celsius or more by the turn of the century, with frequent heatwaves persisting over longer durations. This and more such acute insights were revealed in a recent study released by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India. Based on a thorough assessment of the observed changes and future projections of temperature, rainfall, sea level, and extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, the report is a clarion call for immediate action.

The domino effect set in motion by COVID-19 is a blunt reminder that under-prepared systems will have to bear devastating shocks. Climate change is one such inexorable force that not only amplifies existing risks but also creates new risks to natural and human systems.

Swarms of locusts are currently on the rampage in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, after leaving a trail of destroyed crops in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana. These are no ordinary hoppers in that they become dangerous when they enter the gregarious phase, by forming swarms that can travel up to 150 km per day and eat as much as about 10 elephants in a day. When millions of locusts descend on a crop, they destroy everything, devastating the agricultural supply chain and livelihoods of farmers.

COVID-19 is glaringly revealing the vulnerability of the systems we rely on. Paradoxically, factors that increase vulnerability to COVID-19 are also the ones that enhance vulnerability to climate change, such as income inequity, inappropriate and inadequate housing, employment type, age, and existing health conditions. This is a cause of concern, as both the crises impact the most vulnerable — the homeless, migrants, poor, the marginalised — who already have low or no access to food, housing, healthcare, water and sanitation.

Policy should focus onthe disaggregated needs of the public system, integrating land use and transport.Improvements to Non-Motorized Transit facilities with emphasis on importance of pedestrians Improvements to the bus system includes pricing, timing and awareness of service quality Social impact studies (positive & negative) of major projects should be mandatory, inclusive and participatory.