Rising risks of changing monsoon in

The India Meteorological Department expects a slightly below-normal monsoon this year, at about 92 per cent of the long-period average. The possibility of a ‘super El Niño’ adds further uncertainty. With nearly half of India’s net sown area — contributing around 40 per cent of food production — being rainfed, even small rainfall deviations can disrupt sowing cycles, reduce yields and threaten food security.

While extreme events like droughts are known to severely affect agriculture, smaller variations from normal can be equally damaging, especially without strong systems to support climate-resilient farming.

The idea of a ‘normal’ monsoon can be misleading. A national average may appear stable, but it can mask sharp regional variations, leaving some areas far more exposed than others. Repeated small disruptions also point to a system that responds better to crises than it prevents them.

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