Least-cost generation expansion modeling for Karnataka for FY 2031–32

Karnataka’s rapidly growing economy has led to a surge in energy demand, making it one of the top ten energy consuming states in India. Therefore, it becomes essential to conduct a least-cost generation expansion planning study for the state’s power sector. This paper provides a simulation based comprehensive least-cost planning methodology for Karnataka, which includes capacity expansion modeling to identify the optimal capacity additions required and production cost modeling to analyze the optimal dispatch with the new plant additions planned by the financial year (FY) 2031–32. The least-cost planning aligns with Karnataka’s energy requirements by FY 2031–32 and decarbonization goals, thereby serving the policy mandates. In this study, FY 2023–24 and FY 2031–32 were considered the base and target years, respectively. Constraints such as the renewable purchase obligation (RPO) target, reserves, spinning reserves, reliability requirements, and resource availability for Karnataka were applied. Results from the simulation indicate that a versatile mix of nonfossil fuel energy sources can meet Karnataka’s FY 2031–32 energy demand. Moreover, although some investment is required for the new plant additions, a significant decrease is observed in the state’s average power purchase cost for FY 2031–32. This study provides actionable insights to policymakers, utilities, energy planners, and stakeholders, enabling the planning for a resilient and economically efficient power sector in Karnataka by FY 2031–32.

Click here to read the full article