Fuel mix strategies for decarbonising India’s road transport sector

The rapid growth of vehicular traffic in India has significantly impacted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air pollution, and fossil fuel consumption, emphasising the need for aggressive decarbonisation of road transport to support climate action and reduce energy dependence. India aims to achieve 30% electric vehicle (EV) sales by 2030 (EV30@30), but as of 2023–2024, EV adoption stands at only 6%, primarily driven by two-wheelers (2Ws) and three-wheelers (3Ws).Government initiatives such as Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrids and) EVs in India schemes I and II and the Electric Mobility Promotion Scheme aim to accelerate EV adoption. However, meeting the 30% target remains challenging, and achieving it is projected to reduce GHG emissions by only 4% by 2030 compared with a low-adoption scenario (~5% sales share).

This report explores strategies such as higher penetration of EVs and hybrid EVs (HEVs) complemented by stricter fuel efficiency norms, assessing their potential to deliver greater emission reductions beyond the EV30@30 commitment. The vehicle stock in the country is projected to 2030 and 2035, resulting in a vehicle stock of 425 and 500 million vehicles by 2035, under the conservative and moderate vehicle growth scenarios, respectively. As a result, the 75 million more vehicles in the moderate growth scenario than in the conservative growth scenario will lead to 13% higher emissions, emphasising the need to control vehicular growth by strengthening public transport systems.

Further, three fuel mix scenarios were considered: (a) the reference scenario, wherein the EV30@30 commitment is fulfilled; (b) the aggressive EV adoption (EV+) scenario, wherein EV penetration is accelerated to reach 50% of the total vehicle sales by 2030 and 75% by 2035; and (c) the aggressive hybrid adoption with fuel efficiency (HEV+/FE) scenario, wherein the sales of HEVs are promoted for the four-wheeler, bus, light goods vehicle (LGV), and medium and heavy-duty goods vehicle (MHGV) categories, instead of EVs. The fuel efficiencies of internal combustion engine vehicles in the HEV+/FE scenario are also improved annually by 2%–2.5%.

The EV+ scenario will lead to significant fuel savings, especially in the personal vehicle category (2Ws and private cars). With 53% more personal EVs in the stock than in the reference scenario, the EV+ scenario will lead to 13.5% less petrol consumption. In the commercial vehicle segment (3Ws, cabs, buses, LGVs, and MHGVs), this scenario can result in an 8% reduction in diesel demand than that in the reference scenario. However, fuel efficiency improvements under the HEV+/FE scenario can lead to a further decrease of 3% in the diesel consumption of commercial vehicles.

The HEV+/FE scenario can significantly impact road transport emissions by resulting in a 5% higher reduction than that in the reference scenario. This reflects the impact of improved fuel efficiencies and reduced use of high-carbon-intensive electricity (477 gCO2eq/kWh by 2030). This trend is driven by the high vehicle utilisation in the commercial segment. However, in the personal vehicle segment, the EV+ scenario will become increasingly better than the HEV+/FE scenario by 2033 as the share of renewable energy in electricity generation increases.