It is well established that to achieve net-zero emissions, decarbonising the transport sector is crucial. In 2022, road transport contributed to around 12% of India’s energy-related CO2 emissions. The contribution is expected to double by 2050. To decarbonise the sector, India is targeting a 20% ethanol blending rate (E20) by 2025, which also aims to reduce crude oil imports, boost farmer income, and manage surplus sugar. However, recent studies, particularly in the United States where maize is the source of ethanol production, have revealed that the biofuel blending policy, known as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), carries more disadvantages than advantages. One research effort observed that the RFS programme contributed to rising prices of maize and other crops, resulting in increased farming activity, greater fertiliser usage, emissions from landuse changes, and an overall spike in the carbon intensity of maize-based ethanol production. A separate study corroborated these findings, determining that the mandatory blending of ethanol caused a net increase in costs in the United States, encompassing both economic and environmental ramifications when compared to a hypothetical scenario without the mandate.
Such an exhaustive study for India does not exist. Examining the broader effects of India’s ethanol blending policy is, therefore, crucial, considering its impacts on groundwater, land use, food security, and emissions. Further, there is no long-term policy on ethanol use in India yet. The Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) aims to fill this critical research and policy gap through the study Decarbonising India’s Transport Sector: Navigating Trade-offs of Biofuel Use and Electrification (CSTEP, 2024). We adopted a nexus approach through system dynamics modelling using the Sustainable Alternative Futures for India (SAFARI)1 model to develop scenarios illustrating the consequences of sustaining ethanol blending practices in India until 2070. After analysing these scenarios, we proceeded to outline a roadmap aimed at ensuring the long-term sustainable use of ethanol in India.
