India's Green Energy Transition

The urban population in India—the world’s most populous country—is expected to reach 675 million by 2035 as per the World Cities Report 2022 by UN-Habitat. As most commercial and industrial activities occur in urban areas and electricity is a major factor for development, this population increase will fuel a surge in electricity demand, leading to acute pressure on traditional energy grids and frequent blackouts.

The proliferation of distributed solar energy in India faces significant challenges, primarily due to the high initial investment costs of setting up a solar energy system. Also, the motivation to invest in these solutions is often found lacking, despite government subsidy schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan Mahabhiyaan (PM-KUSUM) and the PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana.

While lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) dominate the current landscape of battery energy storage systems (BESSs), they have significant safety issues, as evident from the increasing number of LIB-related fire incidents in countries across the world, including India. Further, critical minerals used in LIB electrodes are geographically concentrated, leading to supply chain vulnerabilities.

India, like many other nations, is going through the transitional phase of electrifying its transport sector. As a member of the EV30@30 campaign led by the International Energy Agency (IEA), India aims to achieve a 30% sales share for electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030. The state of Karnataka is a leader in the nation’s clean energy transition and is currently at the third position in EV sales among all states.

A clean, cheap, and reliable energy source can increase power supply to farmers while alleviating subsidy burdens and reducing greenhouse emissions. These are precisely the goals of the Central Government’s Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha Evam Utthaan Mahabhiyan (PM-KUSUM) scheme launched in 2019 with a budget outlay of INR 34,422 crores. But as the March 2026 end date is rapidly approaching, the scheme has achieved only 5% of its targeted 34.8 GW solar deployment.

The global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise, driven by rising energy use. Rooftop photovoltaic (RTPV) systems are an effective way to reduce emissions and, consequently, the carbon footprint for residential consumers. The use of behind-the-metre (BTM) energy storage with RTPV is a flexible and dependable method for generating electricity as it provides power to the customer even if there is an outage from the utility grid. It also reduces reliance on the utility through savings in the electricity bill and reducing CO2 emissions.

The future energy mix of India is poised for a transformative shift. However, the transformation is dependent on electricity demand growth, solar and wind capacity expansion, and phasing out of coal assets. This paper discusses three scenarios—BAU, pessimistic, and optimistic—for 2047 and 2070, considering technological changes in the renewable energy (RE) sector. The methodology involves computing installed capacity and energy mix using growth/decay rates and capacity utilisation/plant load factors, respectively, for different energy sources.

Driving cycles or drive cycles are plots of speed versus time used in vehicle testing to estimate fuel consumption and emissions. They are representative of a typical driving pattern of a vehicle type on a route (terrain). For developing drive cycles, the speed data of a vehicle are collected by the car chase method or using on-board devices (such as global positioning system devices); on-board devices provide more accurate speed data at second-by-second intervals than the car chase method. We used on-board diagnostic (OBD) devices to capture accurate speed–time profiles.

India’s ambitious national goals under the Viksit Bharat and Atmanirbhar Bharat programmes focus on continuous economic growth and alleviating equity and poverty issues. Energy, being the most important element driving economic growth, faces challenges like increasing demand, climate change, and pollution. The PAT mechanism under the National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency aims to improve energy efficiency in industrial sectors. It involves setting energy-saving targets, implementing measures, and trading Energy Saving Certificates (ESC erts).

India is ranked fourth globally in installed renewable energy (RE) capacity. Yet, the country has achieved only 32% of its RE target (500 GW by 2030) as of 30 November 2024. While decisions and actions at the central level are crucial, there is a need to focus on sub-national efforts as India is a diverse country with each state having unique challenges and opportunities that are shaped by its geography, resources, and consumer mix.