Thinking in Models: First Impressions from NITI Aayog’s Reports

NITI Aayog has recently released 11 studies that together constitute a multi-sectoral modelling exercise on Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero. These documents represent the outcome of nearly 18 months of work by multiple inter-ministerial working groups, reflecting both the ambition of the exercise and the inherent complexity of cross-institutional coordination.

Drawing on our experience with long-term scenario-building, this blog series examines how these reports can inform future iterations and help strengthen pathways from analysis to implementation. This first blog focuses on macro, big-picture observations and will be followed by separate posts on gaps that merit closer examination.

The biggest win with these reports is the overall directionality and the demonstrated complexity of taking on such a multi-sectoral modelling exercise. The broader message is that if India wants to transition to a net-zero economy alongside Viksit Bharat goals, a significant overhaul and careful planning across sectors will be needed from both demand and supply sides. Several crucial levers and challenges have been discussed or considered: push demand‑side efficiency and electrification, scale renewables as the backbone, incentivise alternative fuels, hard‑wire circularity or critical mineral strategies into the transition, plan for a just transition and social implications, and so on. While similar issues have been examined by several research groups, NITI Aayog’s effort to bring them together, backed by inter-ministerial involvement and sign-offs across domains such as power, environment, and finance, represents a significant institutional signal of national intent.

The main objective of such long-term modelling exercises is to help stakeholders visualise future pathways, including the choices and trade-offs they entail. With several moving parts and such an immense scale, it is difficult to envisage (or plan for) the transition without modelling tools. The NITI Aayog reports have taken some important steps in this direction. By either quantitatively or qualitatively covering all aspects, including the limitations of their model ensemble, the reports convey an easy-to-comprehend two-scenario story (current policy and net zero). There is now a need to shift the discourse away from linear, siloed approaches towards more integrated decarbonisation modelling and a clearer articulation of the uncertainties and risks associated with each choice or pathway.

Of course, all models are built on assumptions that can be refuted as well as defended. Some are relatively minor; for example, whether electric vehicles account for 50%, 60%, or 70% of the fleet in a given year may have a largely linear and therefore more tractable impact on electricity demand and emissions. What is less obvious, and typically not modelled, are the feedback loops arising from resource constraints in highly interconnected systems. This is not a philosophical or theoretical argument for systems thinking but a practical consideration for planning India’s pathways to avoid expensive lock‑ins.

For instance, a net-zero pathway that depends on 5,000+ GW of renewables should not treat land availability as a mere sidenote but rather as a driver of that choice, particularly in tandem with agriculture and other competing priorities. Otherwise, we risk electrifying all demand segments while pinning our hopes on highly efficient large-scale renewable deployment. Similarly, keeping macroeconomics, finance, and energy in silos creates a scenario that is far from reality. Investment flows, fiscal stability, macroeconomic growth, and the energy transition interact bidirectionally, shaping which pathways are ultimately viable. These aren’t minor technicalities; they are systemic constraints that, if ignored, risk locking India into expensive, infeasible, or unsustainable choices.

In this sense, the reports point to an opportunity for future work: integrated modelling that is representative of real-world dynamics and deeper efforts that help understand the uncertainties, risks, and trade-offs.

In the blogs to follow, we will elaborate on why these gaps matter and how they are already being addressed or can be more effectively addressed so that the tools guiding India’s transition are better integrated.